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Energy consumption per GDP reduced by 3.4%. Experts says it’s hard to predict the situation of energy saving

点击量:12009 公布工夫:2013/3/11 12:17:32


The government should feel relieved by the figures of energy saving this year. As the industrial energy saving figures show good signs in the past three quarters, the figures of the whole society are also optimistic.

Xie Zhenhua, commander of China Climate Negotiation Delegation and deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) revealed in the “Precautions against Climate Change Summit Forum” held in Doha that China’s energy consumption per GDP was reduced by 3.4% in the last 9 months this year.

This means the 3.5% energy saving goal set by NDRC for this year can be achieved. China’s energy consumption per GDP was only reduced by 2.01% all through the last year, failing to achieve the goal of 3.5%.

At that time, experts thought that it is usually hard for the goal to achieve the desired effect in the first 2 years of the “Five-Year Plan” for all regions are busy with projects and investment in industry. But things will be better afterwards.

Since economy is down this year, indicators including coal price and electricity demand are not good, and energy saving figures are better accordingly.

Xie Zhenhua had said that energy consumption per GDP would be reduced by more than 3.5% this year. He estimated that China’s energy consumption per GDP is expected to be reduced by 3.7%.

Industry always consumes huge amount of energy. Lin Boqiang, director of China Energy Economy Research Center, Xiamen University, said that industrial energy consumption accounts for more than 70% in the total society, and the current slowdown of industrial growth results in better energy saving figures.

According to the figures from the State Statistics Bureau, industrial growth slowed down from Jan. to Oct. this year, with growth rate of industrial added value of only 10%, lower than the 11% established this year.

During the six high energy-consuming industries, except for the slight year-on-year growth of non-ferrous metal metallurgy and calendering process, the other five all slowed down obviously.

Lin Boqiang analyzed that due to the high sensitivity towards energy consumption in those industries, the reduced growth rate surely resulted in the decline of electricity consumption and the overall level of industrial energy consumption. The good figures of energy saving are attributed to the bad economic situation.

The report compared the figures of the last 10 months with those of the last 9 months. The former showed that except for the steady growth rate of added value in manufacturing and supplying industries involved in electricity and heat and non-metallic mineral products industry, and the slight reduction of 0.2% in non-ferrous metal metallurgy and calendering process industry, the other three all had a upturning industrial added value, though still lower than the same period of last year.

Lin Boqiang analyzed that it is hard to tell the future trend from such a small fluctuation. The current situation of economic development is not sure, and the comparison just indicated a restoration of economy. Generally speaking, it requires a period of time for the high energy consumption projects to be released. The figures of the last three quarters indicated an economic downturn, but it is hard to tell the energy saving situation for the whole of this year and next year due to the steady growth policy implemented in all regions at a later time.

According to the calculation of the State Statistics Bureau, the six high energy-consuming industries invested 3.5 trillion yuan in fixed assets between Jan. and Oct., an increase of 22.2% year on year; up to the end of October, the investment rose to 3.9 trillion yuan, monthly investment reaching 400 billion yuan on average, indicating that all regions are still carrying out high energy consumption projects.

This is also confirmed by Su Bo, deputy director of MIIT, when he was analyzing the industrial energy saving figures of the last three quarters. That means the figures are turning better not because the adjustment of structure and the change of method achieved some progresses. Our industrial energy consumption is still far left behind by those developed countries.

It can be calculated that once the economy is up and the investment of high energy-consuming industry is converted into productivity, the situation would become severe. “Energy saving figures are closely related to economic situation, and industrial growth is also an indication of economic situation,” said Lin Boqiang.





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